Comparing correlation in the FiveThirtyEight and Economist election forecasts

FiveThirtyEight and The Economist take similar inputs but output different forecasts. Adam Pearce was curious about how the state-by-state correlations differed between the two models:

Outside of the CA-DC-VT-WA and LA-MS-ND-KY clusters, where the 538 correlation dips below 0, the models are mostly aligned. Glancing over the outliers, it looks like the Economist might not have an equivalent to 538’s regional regression that groups states in the same geographic region together; the Economist has HI at 0.2 correlation with WA & OR while 538 has it around 0.7.

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NBA playoff win probabilities, animated over time

FiveThirtyEight publishes win probabilities for NBA games throughout the season. During the playoffs, they show chances of winning each round, and with each game, the probabilities shift. Adam Pearce animated these shifts, from the start of the playoffs up to now.

Nice. The visualization. Not so much the Lakers.

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Google search trends dataset for Covid-19 symptoms

Google released a search trends dataset earlier this month. Using this dataset, Adam Pearce made an explorer to compare search volume over time:

The COVID-19 Search Trends symptoms dataset shows aggregated, anonymized trends in Google searches for more than 400 health symptoms, signs, and conditions, such as cough, fever and difficulty breathing. The dataset provides a time series for each region showing the relative volume of searches for each symptom.

Even if you’re not keen on analyzing Covid-19 data, this is likely a good time series source to at least bookmark for later.

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