NCAA bracket game that rewards risk-taking

Bracket game

Unlike traditional bracket-picking, the Upshot's bracket game has a twist. You still want to pick the winners, but you get rewarded extra points if you choose a winning team that's less of a crowd favorite.

It's a more interactive bracket than most. It will award points based on the same economic principles behind the stock market, the real estate market and most of the American economy: the principles of supply and demand. The more unusual that your picks are, the more points you'll receive (so long as those picks are correct). We reward people who take the road less traveled to Indianapolis, site of this year’s Final Four.

In other words, you try to pick winners, but more importantly, you try to pick teams that most people think will lose but actually win.

Make your picks. To make things interesting, the Upshot is running a contest. The person (who officially enters the contest) with the highest score wins an Apple Watch.

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NCAA tournament bracket predictions

2015 bracket

March Madness starts this week in the states, which means it's time for bracket predictions and picks. It's when everyone in the office puts in 20 bucks, makes their picks, and whoever knows the least about basketball wins. FiveThirtyEight has their predictions ready.

Like last year, their model estimates the probability that each team makes it through a round, and the probabilities update on each round. The University of Kentucky is a heavy favorite at a whopping 41 percent. So if memory serves me right, they'll probably get upset in an early round.

A bracket and table interactive accompanies the predictions. I like that the most probable team highlights when you mouse over any part of the bracket.

See also Bill Mill's radial version, which uses FiveThirtyEight's probabilities and Power Rank's updated 2015 radial network version, which puts Kentucky at 37.1 percent chance to win it all. I prefer the traditional bracket view, but they're still kind of fun.

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