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Tim Harford warns against bad data in science:
Some frauds seem comical. In the 1970s, a researcher named William Summerlin claimed to have found a way to prevent skin grafts from being rejected by the recipient. He demonstrated his results by showing a white mouse with a dark patch of fur, apparently a graft from a black mouse. It transpired that the dark patch had been coloured with a felt-tip pen. Yet academic fraud is no joke.
Tags: fake data, science, Tim Harford
Posted by in fake data, Mistaken Data, science, Tim Harford
Tim Harford has a new book coming out tomorrow called The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics.
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.
Added to the list.
If you’re outside North America, look for How To Make The World Add Up. They’re the same book.
Tags: book, Tim Harford
Posted by in Book, statistics, Tim Harford
Students want to get into a school, and schools want certain students. Match. Med students want to get into a specific residency program, and certain programs want specific students. Match.
Tim Harford explains the role of matching algorithms to make picking fair for all parties. The process gets messy when you start looking at thousands of individuals and organizations with multiple preferences each.
The deferred acceptance algorithm is just the start of a successful market design, because details matter. In New York City, there are different application procedures for certain specialised schools. When assigning hospital residencies, the US National Resident Matching Program needed to cope with pairs of romantically attached doctors who wanted two job offers in the same city. These complexities sometimes mean there is no perfect matching algorithm, and the challenge is to find a system that is good enough to work.
Tags: algorithms, matching, Tim Harford
Posted by in algorithms, matching, statistics, Tim Harford
The gross domestic product for the United Kingdom rose by 5% seemingly overnight, after spending on cocaine and prostitution was (roughly) accounted for. Naturally there's been a bit of fuss over the new estimate. Tim Harford explains why the new count isn't such a travesty.
We need to understand three things about gross domestic product statistics. First, GDP itself is ineffable — an attempt to synthesise, for practical purposes, something that defies description. Second, the national accounts are not designed to give a round of applause to the good stuff and a loud raspberry to the bad stuff. They are supposed to measure economic transactions. And, third, anyone who thinks politicians try to maximise GDP has not been paying much attention to politicians.
After you read that, it's also worth listening to the Planet Money podcast on GDP from a few months back. Fuzzy estimate.
Posted by in economy, GDP, statistics, Tim Harford