Simulation for different immunity scenarios

As vaccinations roll out, we work towards herd immunity, there are various challenges to consider along the way. Thomas Wilburn and Richard Harris, reporting for NPR, used simulations to imagine three scenarios: a more infectious variant of the coronavirus, high initial immunity, and low initial immunity.

Since it’s a simulation it of course doesn’t consider every real-life detail of immunity and viral spread, but the animations and the hexagon grids provide a good overhead view.

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Simulation for different immunity scenarios

As vaccinations roll out, we work towards herd immunity, there are various challenges to consider along the way. Thomas Wilburn and Richard Harris, reporting for NPR, used simulations to imagine three scenarios: a more infectious variant of the coronavirus, high initial immunity, and low initial immunity.

Since it’s a simulation it of course doesn’t consider every real-life detail of immunity and viral spread, but the animations and the hexagon grids provide a good overhead view.

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Improving vaccine distribution in all states

Lauren Leatherby and Amy Schoenfeld Walker reporting for The New York Times:

“Every state is improving,” said Claire Hannan, the executive director of the Association of Immunization Managers. “We still don’t have enough to vaccinate everyone over 75, so it doesn’t necessarily feel different for people who are trying to find the vaccine, but we are in a much better place now.”

Good.

Find the most current CDC vaccination data here. You can also find weekly distribution counts by state for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

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Half of coronavirus deaths were in the winter

You probably knew that coronavirus deaths have been in the several thousands per day for a few months now. But Lazaro Gamio, for The New York Times, framed the cumulative rates in an even more striking way with a straightforward stacked bar chart. Half of U.S. coronavirus deaths were after November 1.

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How quickly the U.S. is vaccinating vs. how long it’ll take to get back to “normal”

Vaccines provide light at the end of the tunnel, but when we finally get to the end depends on the speed at which we vaccinate. The Washington Post considers Joe Biden’s pledge for 100 million shots in his first 100 days in the context of herd immunity and calendar days.

I appreciate the time spent explaining the intersection of these two lines.

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Pandemic Graphics Archive

The Pandemic Graphics Archive is a work-in-progress collection of floor signs and posters from our current days of distance and mask-wearing. [via swissmiss]

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Sonification of Covid-19 deaths

This is interesting:

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When the U.S. could be vaccinated

For Reuters, Feilding Cage, Chris Canipe and Prasanta Dutta made an interactive that lets you adjust dose rate and state in a simulation to get an estimate for when we might reach herd immunity.

As with any simulation, there are assumptions and simplifications. In this case, the dose rate stays uniform and total population is used, even though there are no vaccines available to children yet. But it’s something.

My main takeaway is that we’re gonna have to be patient (still).

Just speaking to the chart, I like the sketch-ish dashed lines and gradient to show herd immunity ranges. They communicate that things are still uncertain.

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Dot density to show Covid-19 deaths over time

The United States passed 425,000 coronavirus deaths this week. For The New York Times, Lazaro Gamio and Lauren Leatherby used dot density over time to show how we got to this point.

Each dark pixel represents a death, and each tick mark represents a day. So the strip starts light with sparsely placed dots, and then it gets darker and darker. Get to present day, and there’s hardly any white space.

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Even with vaccine, probably shouldn’t rush into easing up on restrictions

With vaccines, we might be tempted to jump back into “normal” life before it’s really safe. The New York Times reports on why waiting until March instead of February might be the way to. This is based on estimates from Columbia University researchers, and you can read the preprint here (pdf) by Jeffrey Shaman et al.

We’ve come this far already…

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