Bodybuilder risks

The human body has its limits, so many bodybuilders take steroids to increase those limits to build bigger muscles. Bonnie Berkowitz and William Neff, for The Washington Post, used a combination of illustration and 3-D animations to show what happens and the risks of introducing more of everything to the body.

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Communicating risk in the context of daily living

Wayne Oldford, a statistics professor at the University of Waterloo, explains risk in the context of daily life at the individual level, because “one in a million” is not especially intuitive:

A few years ago, I was the “go to guy” at the University of Waterloo, asked to speak to local media, whenever a lottery jackpot got stupendously large (and the news cycle got exceedingly slow). My purpose was to relate to their audience the size of the chance of winning in a way that was quick yet comprehensible, which I did with some success on local radio and television stations.

Inevitably, though, the next day I would hear back of listener disappointment – that some of the fun of purchasing a ticket had been removed. Joy came from anticipating winning the prize and my exposition killed that for many, by them having gained an appreciation of the chance of actually winning.

I felt a little bit bad about this. I wanted people to understand the probabilities but I didn’t want to be a kill joy.

Important reading if you’re trying to understand the odds of things these days.

My favorite explanation of risk in the day-to-day is still the one from David Spiegelhalter.

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Cancer and statistics

Hannah Fry works with statistics and risk, but her perspective changed when she was diagnosed with cancer. Fry documented the experience and it’s available on BBC:

Hannah Fry, a professor of maths, is used to investigating the world around her through numbers. When she’s diagnosed with cervical cancer at the age of 36, she starts to interrogate the way we diagnose and treat cancer by digging into the statistics to ask whether we are making the right choices in how we treat this disease. Are we sometimes too quick to screen and treat cancer? Do doctors always speak to us honestly about the subject? It may seem like a dangerous question to ask, but are we at risk of overmedicalising cancer?

At the same time, Hannah records her own cancer journey in raw and emotional personal footage, where the realities of life after a cancer diagnosis are laid bare.

You can only watch the film in the UK for now, but she spoke about the topic on the Numberphile podcast. Worth a listen.

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Reducing the risk of nuclear war

For Our World in Data, Max Roser discusses the risk and possible destruction of nuclear war, along with suggestions on how to reduce that risk:

An escalating conflict between nuclear powers – but also an accident, a hacker, a terrorist, or an irresponsible leader – could lead to the detonation of nuclear weapons.

Those risks only go to zero if all nuclear weapons are removed from the world. I believe this is what humanity should work towards, but it is exceedingly hard to achieve, at least in the short term. It is therefore important to see that there are additional ways that can reduce the chance of the world suffering the horrors of nuclear war.

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Prep Your Health for Earthquakes

A seismograph

February is Earthquake Awareness Month

If people were asked where in the United States do most earthquakes happen, they are likely to answer California. They’d be correct.(1) But earthquakes are a hazard in other parts of the country, too.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that nearly half of all Americans live in areas with some potential for damaging earthquakes. That includes people living in the central states where there is what USGS calls “strong shaking potential.”(2)

If you live under the threat of earthquakes, there are ways you can prepare. They start with collecting emergency supplies, including personal needs, and planning ahead. Here are three more ways you can prepare.

Know Your Risk

There’s no way to know when or where an earthquake will happen. The best scientists can do is calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will happen in a specific area within a certain number of years.(3)

It is, however, possible to better know the earthquake hazard where you live and the earthquake risk to your community.

An earthquake hazard is anything associated with an earthquake that may affect the normal activities of people. This includes landslide, liquefaction, tsunamis, and seiches.(4)

Use the USGS National Seismic Hazard Map to learn the general earthquake hazard in your area. The map shows how many times earthquakes could cause damaging ground shaking in 10,000 years. That doesn’t mean the earthquakes won’t happen before. They could happen at any time.(5)

Your earthquake risk is the probable building damage and the number of people that are expected to be hurt or killed if an earthquake occurs on a particular fault. Earthquake risk and earthquake hazard are sometimes incorrectly used interchangeably. High earthquake hazard does not mean high risk.(6)

The best way for you to stay informed about both the hazard and risk to your community is to contact your local emergency management or geological survey office. Understanding your risk can help you take steps to protect yourself and your property.

Earthquakes can trigger tsunamis. A tsunami can strike any U.S. coast, but the hazard is greatest in places near subduction zones. For example, Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and the U.S. Caribbean islands. If you live along the coast in one of these places, you are at risk from tsunamis.

Practice Your Response

Earthquakes can have immediate and long-term impacts on health and safety. They can cause injuries, anxiety and stress, and death.(7)

Participating in emergency response activities like the Great ShakeOut earthquake drill can teach you practical skills that you can use during an earthquake. Take these steps:

  1. STOP and stay put. Stay inside if you are inside and outside if you are outside. If inside and if possible, move away from glass, hanging objects, bookcases, cabinets, and large furniture that could fall. If you are outside, move away from buildings, utility wires, and fuel and gas lines.
  2. DROP down onto your hands and knees. This position protects you from falling but allows you to still move if necessary.
  3. COVER your head and neck (and your entire body if possible) underneath a table or desk. If there is no shelter nearby, get down near an interior wall or next to low-lying furniture that won’t fall on you, and cover your head and neck with your arms and hands. If you are in bed, hold on and stay there. Protect your head with a pillow.
  4. HOLD ON to your shelter (or to your head and neck) until the shaking stops. Be prepared to move with your shelter if the shaking shifts it around.

Studies of injuries and deaths caused by earthquakes over several decades show that you are much more likely to be injured by falling or flying objects than to die in a collapsed building.(8)

Imagine your home or workplace being picked up and shaken sideways. What would be thrown around and cause injury or damage?

Reduce your risk of injury by taking no-cost steps to secure the space around you:

  • Move or secure furniture, such as bookcases, away from beds, sofas, or other places where people sit, sleep, or spend a lot of time.
  • Move heavy objects to lower shelves.
  • Move heavy or unstable objects away from doors and escape routes.(9)

Learn more about how to protect yourself during an earthquake.

Protect Your Property

Consider buying earthquake insurance if you have the means and live someplace where there’s a high earthquake hazard. Standard homeowners’ and renters’ insurance policies do not cover damage resulting from land movement or landslides.

Earthquake insurance isn’t a realistic option for everyone. Increases in insurance premiums have made it difficult to find coverage in many areas. California experiences 90% of the country’s earthquakes, but only 10% of residents had earthquake insurance in 2014.(10)

There are many things to consider when deciding whether to buy earthquake insurance. They include how often earthquakes happen in your area, how long it’s been since the last earthquake, the value of your home and its contents, and the cost of the insurance and restrictions on coverage (i.e., the deductible).(11)

Learn more about earthquake insurance.

Resources

References

  1. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/which-state-has-most-earthquakes-cause-damage-which-state-has-most-earthquakes-not-human
  2. https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/nearly-half-americans-exposed-potentially-damaging-earthquakes
  3. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes
  4. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/?term=earthquake%20hazard
  5. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/introduction-national-seismic-hazard-maps
  6. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/?term=earthquake%20risk
  7. https://emergency.cdc.gov/cerc/ppt/CERC_Psychology_of_a_Crisis.pdf
  8. https://www.earthquakecountry.org/dropcoverholdon/
  9. https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step1/
  10. https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/earthquake/insurance
  11. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-do-i-decide-whether-or-not-get-earthquake-insurance

 

Thanks in advance for your questions and comments on this Public Health Matters post. Please note that CDC does not give personal medical advice. If you are concerned you have a disease or condition, talk to your doctor.

Have a question for CDC? CDC-INFO (http://www.cdc.gov/cdc-info/index.html) offers live agents by phone and email to help you find the latest, reliable, and science-based health information on more than 750 health topics.

Communicating effectiveness of boosters

Statisticians David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters for The Guardian on reframing risk estimates:

An earlier UKHSA study estimated two Pfizer/BioNTech doses gave around 99.7% (97.6% to near-100%) protection against Delta-infected hospitalisation, but after 20 weeks that effectiveness waned to 92.7% (90.3% to 94.6%). This estimated decline for people over 16 may not sound much, but if we look at it in terms of “lack of protection”, their estimated vulnerability relative to being unvaccinated went from 0.3% to 7.3%. That is a major, although uncertain, increase in risk.

Such “negative framing” can change impressions: “90% fat-free” sounds rather different than “10% fat”.

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Visualizing risk of Johnson & Johnson vaccine side effect

As the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pauses in the United States, Philip Bump for The Washington Post offers a quick visualization that shows 100 vaccinations per second. A red one appears if there’s a side effect. But because the side effect is rare, currently at 1 in 1.1 million, the red dot on the visualization likely never appears as you watch. The blue dots are potential lives saved if the J&J vaccine continues.

I’m reminded of David Spiegelhalter’s video on understanding risk from over a decade ago. So many everyday activities carry risk. The only way we get through the day is not to avoid all risk, which is impossible, but to figure out what risk we’re willing to take.

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Why small gatherings can be dangerous too

A small gathering of 10 people or fewer can seem like a low-risk activity, and at the individual level, it’s lower risk than going to a big birthday party. But when a lot of people everywhere are gathering, small or large, the collective risk goes up. For FiveThirtyEight, Maggie Koerth and Elena Mejía illustrate the reasoning.

The collective part is where many seem to get tripped up. “Flattening the curve” only works when everyone works together. Lower your risk, and you lower the collective risk. You’re helping others. You’re helping those you care about.

Then, collectively, we all get out of this mess.

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Estimate your Covid-19 risk, given location and activities

The microCOVID Project provides a calculator that lets you put in where you are and various activities to estimate your risk:

This is a project to quantitatively estimate the COVID risk to you from your ordinary daily activities. We trawled the scientific literature for data about the likelihood of getting COVID from different situations, and combined the data into a model that people can use. We estimate COVID risk in units of microCOVIDs, where 1 microCOVID = a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.

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Illustrations show how to reduce risk at small gatherings

Risk of coronavirus infection changes depending on the amount of contagious particles you breathe in. El Pais illustrated the differences when you take certain measures, namely wearing masks, ventilation, and decreased exposure time.

The suggestions are based on statistical models, so there is more uncertainty than I think the explanations provide, but the sequence of illustrations provides a clear picture of what we can do — if you must do things indoors.

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