Statistical fallacies in the news

For UnHerd, Tom Chivers, talks about David Spiegelhalter’s new book and why every statistical headline deserves a grain of salt. One way to make sure things check out:

As a non-mathematician, I have a few shortcuts for working out whether a statistic is worth believing, which seem to have done all right for me so far. One, which Spiegelhalter stresses, is that often the best statistical analysis you can do is simply visualising the data. There was a bit of a recent kerfuffle about suicides among girls and young women going up 83% since 2012; but simply looking at the ONS chart showed that the numbers were small, the data was noisy, and the only way you got the 83% figure was by choosing the lowest year on record. (It’s an old trick.)

See also: common statistical fallacies.

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Explaining the evolution of trust with game theory

Nicky Case, who has a knack for making complex topics playfully fun, delves into the evolution of trust between people and groups using game theory. And naturally, the explainer is in the format of a game. See how the golden rule plays out, how cheaters prosper in the short run but lose in the end, and how communication is key.

The game takes about 30 minutes to play. Worth your time.

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Declining trust in statistics

Statistics took a hit this election season, and it could be a slow trek to get back to where we once were. William Davies for The Guardian discusses the current feelings towards data and provides some history of how we got here.

In many ways, the contemporary populist attack on “experts” is born out of the same resentment as the attack on elected representatives. In talking of society as a whole, in seeking to govern the economy as a whole, both politicians and technocrats are believed to have “lost touch” with how it feels to be a single citizen in particular. Both statisticians and politicians have fallen into the trap of “seeing like a state”, to use a phrase from the anarchist political thinker James C Scott. Speaking scientifically about the nation – for instance in terms of macroeconomics – is an insult to those who would prefer to rely on memory and narrative for their sense of nationhood, and are sick of being told that their “imagined community” does not exist.

But maybe this is an opportunity for data folks. Maybe people are ready for more data and more distributions and ready to look past averages and values without uncertainty.

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